BuildForce Canada's 2026–2035 outlook for British Columbia, released in July, projects that the province's construction industry will need to recruit roughly 48,200 new workers over the next decade just to keep pace with retirements and expansion (BuildForce Canada, July 20, 2026). Of the current workforce, about 46,700 workers — 22 percent — are expected to retire by 2035 (BuildForce Canada, July 20, 2026). Local recruitment of workers under 30 is projected to add about 40,800 new workers, leaving a potential shortfall of roughly 7,400 workers by the end of the forecast period unless recruitment increases (BuildForce Canada, July 20, 2026).
The report also points to a widening gap between residential and non-residential construction. Housing starts, which peaked in 2023, are expected to decline through the decade, and residential construction employment in BC is projected to fall 13 percent by 2035 compared with 2025 (BuildForce Canada, July 20, 2026). Non-residential construction — industrial, commercial and institutional work — is expected to move in the opposite direction, with employment projected to grow 5 percent over the same period, supported in part by sustained healthcare and education projects (BuildForce Canada, July 20, 2026). In the Lower Mainland specifically, the report projects residential employment down 15 percent and non-residential down a much smaller 3 percent by 2035 (BuildForce Canada, July 20, 2026).
BC Construction Association president Chris Atchison noted that closing the gap depends not just on recruiting more apprentices, but on supporting them through to completion of their training (BuildForce Canada, July 20, 2026).
Locally, the City of Richmond's most recent weekly building permit report (September 27 to October 3, 2026) shows the kind of steady, mixed activity this data describes: 17 permits worth a combined $4.15 million, spanning new multi-family housing, residential renovations, retail fit-outs and office space (City of Richmond, October 5, 2026).
For homeowners and business owners planning a project, the labour picture is a practical consideration as much as an economic one. As the pool of experienced tradespeople tightens, scheduling and sequencing subtrades becomes a bigger factor in whether a project stays on timeline. A design-build team with long-standing relationships across the trades it relies on — framing, electrical, plumbing, finishing — is generally better positioned to keep a project moving than one assembled crew by crew, project by project.
Sources
- BuildForce Canada, "Residential construction demands slow in British Columbia to 2035, while short-term non-residential growth is expected to be significant," July 20, 2026: https://www.buildforce.ca/en/press-release/residential-construction-demands-slow-in-british-columbia-to-2035-while-short-term-non-residential-growth-is-expected-to-be-significant/
- City of Richmond, Building Permit Issuance Report, September 27 – October 3, 2026: https://www.richmond.ca/__shared/assets/buildingreportsep27-oct3202679844.pdf
